Minutes of the High Plains AMS/NWA Chapter Meeting
30 Oct 2014
The AMS/NWA High Plains Chapter held a meeting on Thursday, October 30th. Thirteen Chapter members were in attendance. The gathering started with a presentation by Jeff Halblaub, on the topic of Tornadoes without NWS Warnings. Some of the take-home points were: A) The1st tornado of the day, and solitary events are the most difficult to warn for; B) The first tornado of the day, and solitary events, also had the greatest percentage of negative lead-times; C) The stronger the tornado and longer the track, the higher the probability of being warned; D) The weaker the tornado and shorter the track, the higher the probability of not being warned; E) The ratio of unwarned tornadoes increased with range from the radar; F) However, many weak tornadoes were missed, even in high population centers, where radars are usually the closest. A separate WDTB study found that the second highest reason for "missed" tornadoes was that the forecasters did not anticipate it. To sum up, Jeff noted that convection can always do things on time and space scales that are difficult, if not impossible to anticipate in advance. This includes taking the appropriate action before understanding why something is occurring. There will always be time for analysis after the event is over.
The meeting began around 1:15 PM, with President Bill Taylor welcoming everyone. The first subject covered was the wrap-up from the recent High Plains Conference, held in Hastings. There were 70 attendees at the conference, with 32 presenters, and there were 27 t-shirts sold. The conference brought in $5,585, spent $4,646, for a profit of $938. In our Chapter treasury, there was $6,707.61 in the checking account, $1,490 in the Jim Johnson Scholarship Fund, leaving $5,217.61 in available funds.
There was some discussion of moving the conference profits into the Jim Johnson Scholarship fund, and this measure was voted in. There was a PowerPoint presentation from the non-profit Children’s Museum in Hastings. This museum wants to include a weather exhibit. We voted to contribute $500 to the Children’s Museum. There were two numbers which joined our Chapter, one of which was a professor from Fort Hays University. Further, a new Chapter seal was voted in, and is the same as was on the shirts from the recent conference in Hastings.
The meeting ended at 1:30 PM CST. The next meeting will be in the Dec/Jan time frame. Members will be notified.
William Taylor Tim Burke